Which Cities have the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk?
![Which Cities have the Highest Real Estate Bubble Risk?](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.voronoiapp.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fvoronoi-Which-Cities-have-the-Highest-Real-Estate-Bubble-Risk-20240510130602.webp&w=3840&q=75)
The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index analyzes the real estate market of 25 major cities across the globe and assigns them a score between -0.5 to 2.0 to convey bubble risk. The higher the score, the more imbalanced the market is, with those above 1.5 in “bubble-risk” territory.
We visualize the data in the above map, along with charting the real property price changes in the last year.
The Bubbliest
At the top of UBS’ findings is Switzerland’s financial capital Zurich, with a 1.71 score, putting the city firmly in the bubble-risk zone. With its high-income earners and the country’s low interest rates, the city has been steadily climbing the real estate bubble-risk rankings, 5th in 2021, to 3rd in 2022, to the top spot this year.
Tokyo (1.65) is the second and final entry in the real estate markets with immediate bubble risk. This is a decrease from nine total cities in that category last year.
See the full article at visualcapitalist.com
Dataset
Rank | City | Index Score | Rating |
---|---|---|---|
1 | 🇨🇭 Zurich | 1.71 | Bubble-Risk |
2 | 🇯🇵 Tokyo | 1.65 | Bubble-Risk |
3 | 🇺🇸 Miami | 1.38 | Overvalued |
4 | 🇩🇪 Munich | 1.35 | Overvalued |
5 | 🇩🇪 Frankfurt | 1.27 | Overvalued |
6 | 🇭🇰 Hong Kong | 1.24 | Overvalued |
7 | 🇨🇦 Toronto | 1.21 | Overvalued |
8 | 🇨🇭 Geneva | 1.13 | Overvalued |
9 | 🇺🇸 Los Angeles | 1.03 | Overvalued |
10 | 🇬🇧 London | 0.98 | Overvalued |
11 | 🇮🇱 Tel Aviv | 0.93 | Overvalued |
12 | 🇨🇦 Vancouver | 0.81 | Overvalued |
13 | 🇳🇱 Amsterdam | 0.80 | Overvalued |
14 | 🇸🇪 Stockholm | 0.74 | Overvalued |
15 | 🇫🇷 Paris | 0.73 | Overvalued |
16 | 🇦🇺 Sydney | 0.67 | Overvalued |
17 | 🇮🇹 Milan | 0.49 | Fair-Valued |
18 | 🇺🇸 New York | 0.47 | Fair-Valued |
19 | 🇸🇬 Singapore | 0.47 | Fair-Valued |
20 | 🇪🇸 Madrid | 0.46 | Fair-Valued |
21 | 🇺🇸 Boston | 0.34 | Fair-Valued |
22 | 🇺🇸 San Francisco | 0.27 | Fair-Valued |
23 | 🇦🇪 Dubai | 0.14 | Fair-Valued |
24 | 🇧🇷 São Paulo | 0.09 | Fair-Valued |
25 | 🇵🇱 Warsaw | -0.28 | Fair-Valued |
Data sources
The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts. But historical data reveals patterns of property market excesses. Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, and imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive lending and construction activity. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of a property bubble on the basis of such patterns. The index does not predict whether and when a correction will set in. A change in macroeconomic momentum, a shift in investor sentiment or a major supply increase could trigger a decline in house prices.